Satellite images show a rise in water storage at Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam, said Dr. Abbas Sharaky, professor of geology and water resources at Cairo University, revealed.
The increase coincides with the onset of the rainy season, amid heightened fears regarding Ethiopia’s handling of water discharge and its downstream effects on Egypt and Sudan.
In a post on Facebook, Sharaky cited data from the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) forecasting above-average rainfall across the region from June through August.
He noted that daily inflows from rainfall had already reached 80 million cubic meters this week, up from 20 million in May, and are expected to rise to 225 million cubic meters per day by July.
“The water volume in the dam’s reservoir dropped from 60 billion cubic meters last September to 54 billion last week,” Sharaky wrote. “With increasing rainfall, this volume is now rising again.”
In October 2024, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared that Ethiopia had stored sufficient water, asserting that Addis Ababa is committed to assisting Egypt and Sudan if they face shortages.
Speaking to Al Manassa, an official within Egypt's Ministry of Irrigation responsible for the Nile Basin file, estimated that the Ethiopian reservoir holds 55 billion cubic meters.
“To ensure the dam’s safety, Ethiopia may be forced to release a large volume of water at once if faced with heavy flooding,” the official said, requesting anonymity. “This is not sound dam management.”
Egypt, the official noted, can absorb a sudden influx thanks to the High Dam and a longer lead time to receive the water. But Sudan remains vulnerable because its dams are smaller, and the distance between Sudan’s Roseires Dam and Ethiopia’s Renaissance Dam is less than 100 km.
They also confirmed that six of the Renaissance Dam’s turbines are operational, with a seventh nearing activation. However, turbine operation is limited to staggered intervals, explaining why some may appear inactive in satellite images.
In December, Egypt announced the end of negotiations over the dam, stating it would closely monitor the filling and operation process. The government reiterated its right to protect Egypt’s water and national security under international law.
In March, Minister of Water Resources & Irrigation Hani Sewilam acknowledged that Egypt had been affected by the dam but “managed the situation at a cost.” He stressed that the Declaration of Principles agreement obliges compensation for any harm to downstream countries.
President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, speaking in October, said the Nile is essential to Egypt’s survival, supplying more than 98% of its water needs. “Protecting this vital resource is an existential issue,” he said, urging political commitment and regional cooperation.
Last September, Ethiopia informed the UN Security Council of what it described as Egypt’s “repeated threats to use force” to resolve the Renaissance Dam crisis. Addis Ababa claimed it remained willing to resolve the dispute through genuine negotiations based on international law.
This came in response to a letter Egypt had sent to the Council regarding statements by Ethiopia’s prime minister about the fifth filling of the dam and the impounding of Blue Nile waters—actions Cairo called “completely unacceptable.”
