Between margins and hope: Could an Arab ever become pope?

Last Wednesday, 133 cardinals secluded themselves inside the Sistine Chapel in Rome to begin the conclave—the secretive process to elect the next pope. Iraqi Cardinal Louis Sako, patriarch of the Chaldean Catholic Church, was the sole Arab among them.

Besides having a vote, he also had a rare opportunity to ascend to the papacy. But the historical marginalization of Eastern Catholic Churches continues to hinder their influence in the Vatican’s highest decisions—a reality that further diminishes the already slim chances of electing an Arab pope.

As the "sede vacante"—the period of the "empty seat" between a pope’s death and the election of his successor—entered its final phase, the Vatican cut off internal communications until white smoke has risen above Saint Peter’s Basilica, signaling the election of a new pope through a complex voting process.

Of the 170 members of the College of Cardinals only 133 were under the age of 80 and thus eligible to vote for the new leader of the Catholic Church or be elected pope.

Isolated at home and abroad

Cardinal Sako has headed the Chaldean Catholic Church since 2013. Pope Francis elevated him to rank of cardinal five years later, formally appointing him on June 28, 2018. Since then, he has represented Eastern Catholics within the College of Cardinals.

Yet Sako has not been insulated from the political complexities in Iraq. Last year, he found himself at odds with the Babylon Movement, a political group tied to the Popular Mobilization Forces. The fallout led him to withdraw from the patriarchal seat in Baghdad and relocate to a monastery in Kurdistan, after Iraqi President Abdul Latif Rashid moved to curtail his administrative powers.

Leaving one form of isolation in Iraq, Sako enters another in Rome. The absence of other Arab cardinals at the conclave reflects the broader under-representation of Catholics in the Arab world, a region where Christian populations have declined due to migration caused by religious discrimination. This alarming trend has been the subject of extensive discussions at the Middle East Council of Churches.

Even in countries with sizable Christian minorities like Egypt, and despite various Particular Churches (distinct Catholic rites), Catholics remain a small proportion of the total. The largest Catholic community in Egypt, the Coptic Catholic Church, follows the Alexandrian rite and maintains distinct traditions, such as praying in Coptic.

However, since the death of Cardinal Antonios Naguib in 2022, Coptic Catholic Patriarch Ibrahim Isaac has not been made a cardinal, leaving Egypt without representation at the conclave.

In Lebanon, Catholics primarily belong to the Maronite Church, named after the renowned Monastery of Saint Maron. The monastery was established in honor of the hermit Saint Maron, who lived in the fourth century in the city of Cyrrhus. The ruins of that city still stand north of Aleppo, near one of the sources of the Afrin River, in a place now known as Nabi Huri. The seat of the Maronite Church today is in Bkerké, Lebanon.

With its own patriarch and bishops, the Church was founded in A.D. 687 in northern Syria by Patriarch John Maron. Maronites are part of the Catholic Church and recognize papal authority, but their current patriarch, Cardinal Bechara Boutros al-Rahi, is over 80 years old and thus ineligible to vote or run for the papacy.

Migration by Eastern Christians to Latin America has opened alternative Arab pathways to the papacy. In 2023, Pope Francis appointed the first cardinal of Palestinian origin: Archbishop Fernando Natalio Chomali Garib of Santiago, Chile. He was born on March 10, 1957 in Santiago, but descends from the Chomali family originally from Beit Sahour, near Bethlehem. Having been ordained a bishop in 2006, as a cardinal he now has both the right to choose the pope and be elected himself.

In the running

Historically, Eastern Catholic Churches have had little influence in papal elections. Instead, momentum in the Global South shifts away from the Arab region and Africa towards candidates from Latin America, home to over 70% of the world’s Catholics.

This majority is not reflected in the conclave. Europe, although predominantly Protestant, is represented by 52 voting cardinals (40% of the total), followed by Asia (23), Latin America (17), Africa (17), North America (20), and Oceania (4).

Of the 133 eligible cardinals, 108 were appointed by Pope Francis, 20 by Pope Benedict XVI, and five by Pope John Paul II.

Among the front-runners was Italian Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, archbishop of Bologna and a close ally of Pope Francis. Known for his mediation efforts in the Ukraine war and his openness toward LGBTQ+ communities, Zuppi is seen as a bridge-builder.

From Asia, Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines—head of the Dicastery for Evangelization and hence a key figure in the Vatican’s missionary work.

From Africa, Congolese Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, the archbishop of Kinshasa and an advocate for traditional Catholic values, and Guinean Cardinal Robert Sarah, a conservative figure appointed by Pope Benedict. 

Given the Church’s Eurocentric traditions, it is widely held that Pope Francis’s Italian roots, combined with his Latin American upbringing, were key to his being given a real chance at ascending to the papacy.

Italian Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, is known for his strong support for the Palestinian cause and ties with the region. If ever elected, it would challenge traditionalist trends going back to Benedict that see the Church as above society and signify a shift in the Church’s geopolitical priorities.

The white smoke

Amid swirling speculation, the cardinals entered strict seclusion in the Domus Sanctae Marthae, a Vatican guesthouse with around 130 rooms, from where they are shuttled to the Sistine Chapel for daily voting sessions—two rounds each in the morning and afternoon.

The term “conclave,” from the Latin cum clave or “with key,” dates back to the 13th century, when cardinals were locked in to accelerate the decision-making process and prevent external interference.

After each round, the ballots are burned. Black smoke signals inconclusive votes; white smoke indicates a successful election. This ritual continues until one candidate receives a two-thirds majority.

As the world waited for the smoke to turn white, one Arab cardinal was in the room, carrying both the hopes of Eastern Churches and the weight of isolation.