Severe bottlenecks in importing Russian and Ukrainian wheat cut Egypt’s wheat arrivals by more than 75% in July and August to roughly 480,000 tons, down from 1.95 million tons during the same period last year, a supply ministry official familiar with the wheat import file told Al Manassa.
The sudden slump has triggered a sharp surge in local flour prices and strained private bakers, threatening higher costs for daily staples such as bread and pasta.
While record domestic procurement has insulated government stockpiles, private importers holding smaller reserves face escalating freight rates, international price spikes, and dwindling Black Sea shipments during peak export season.
Local price pressures have already begun passing through the supply chain. Import prices rose to about 16,250 Egyptian pounds ($335) per ton from 14,250 pounds in July, Abdel Ghaffar El-Salamouni, deputy head of the Grain Industry Chamber at the Federation of Industries told Al Manassa.
Open-market flour prices jumped roughly 8% earlier this month following Russian grain restrictions, and overall flour prices have increased by 2,000 pounds per ton to range between 18,000–25,000 pounds depending on quality, El-Salamouni explained.
He warned that continued Black Sea disruptions will further raise production costs for baked goods, including commercial “tourist” bread and sandwich bread.
The current shortfall contrasts sharply with total figures for the year. A document reviewed by Al Manassa showed Egypt’s cumulative wheat imports for the first eight months of 2026 reached 8.18 million tons, a 21% increase compared to 6.77 million tons in the same period last year.
However, an industry federation official explained that this year-to-date growth was heavily front-loaded before the July crisis, as importers actively hedged against worsening regional geopolitical risks before trade routes seized up.
To offset lost Black Sea supply, Egyptian commercial buyers have begun looking further afield. Shipping data showed two vessels scheduled to load roughly 30,000 tons of wheat each at the French port of La Pallice in late August, a move traders characterized as a substitution for cancelled or delayed Russian and Ukrainian cargoes.
The supply crunch escalated late last month when Russia restricted truck deliveries of grain to three export terminals at the ports of Novorossiysk and Taman, coinciding with intensifying drone attacks on regional shipping lanes.
Tit-for-tat attacks by Russia and Ukraine on ports and vessels forced shippers to delay or cancel loadings during the peak export window, Reuters reported, driving Chicago wheat futures up more than 17% since early July.
Reuters identified Egypt among the buyers most exposed to the fallout, though the strain has fallen more heavily on private traders than state buyer reserves.
Despite recent stoppages, Black Sea grain continues to dominate Egypt’s total import balance sheet for the year. Between Jan. 1 and Aug. 25, Russian wheat accounted for 4.8 million tons, or 58.65% of total imported volume, while Ukrainian wheat ranked second at roughly 1.93 million tons, or 23.61%, according to the document reviewed by Al Manassa.
Together, it says, the two nations represented nearly 82% of all Egyptian wheat imports over the eight-month period, a concentration built up prior to the summer export disruptions.
Romania ranked third over the same period with 621,000 tons, followed by France with approximately 297,840 tons, Bulgaria with roughly 246,860 tons, Canada with 115,360 tons, the United States with 71,000 tons, and Brazil with 53,550 tons, along with smaller shipments from Australia and Moldova.
