Local prices for unsubsidized flour have risen as global wheat prices climbed about 8% over the past two weeks, driving up the cost of flour-based products including commercial bread and pasta, three sources at the Federation of Egyptian Chambers of Commerce and the Federation of Egyptian Industries told Al Manassa.
Khaled Fikry, secretary of the Bakery Division at the Chambers of Commerce, said the price of 72% extraction flour rose by about 2,000 Egyptian pounds ($39) per ton in just two weeks, reaching 19,000 to 20,000 pounds (about $370 to $390) and forcing up unsubsidized bread prices.
Some bakery owners raised the price of a loaf by about 25 piasters to offset part of the increase, Fikry told Al Manassa. That amounts to a 12.5% increase for a loaf previously sold for 2 pounds ($0.04).
Abdel Ghaffar El-Salamouni, deputy head of the Grain Chamber at the Federation of Industries, said wheat prices rose 8.3%, from $217 to $235 per ton, over the past two weeks, raising local flour production costs.
El-Salamouni told Al Manassa the increase was driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea region and concerns over exports from major wheat-producing countries, which have pushed up global prices and import costs.
Fikry said commercial bread prices are governed by supply and demand, but the Ministry of Supply previously set indicative prices for three loaf sizes to regulate the market and prevent excessive increases. Those prices may now need to be reviewed to reflect higher production costs, he added.
In April 2024, the Ministry of Supply set the price of an 80-gram loaf of unsubsidized bread at 1.5 pounds, a 40-gram loaf at 75 piasters, and a 25-gram loaf at 50 piasters. It also priced a 50-gram fino roll at 1.5 pounds and a 35-gram roll at 1 pound after an earlier rise in flour prices.
Mohamed Sharaf, a member of the Flour Mills Division at the Chambers of Commerce, said continued increases in global wheat prices, coupled with supply chain disruptions, had raised flour, import, and shipping costs.
The local market relies heavily on imported wheat to produce unsubsidized flour, leaving it particularly vulnerable to changes in global prices and transport and insurance costs, Sharaf told Al Manassa. Pasta prices rose to about 20,000 pounds ($392) per ton from 19,700 pounds ($386) two weeks earlier.
He said disruptions to global trade had also increased shipping costs and delivery times, prompting mills to reprice their products in line with higher raw material costs. Mills continue to meet market needs despite those pressures, he added.
Sharaf said prices were likely to remain at current levels or rise further if the global wheat rally and pressure on supply chains persisted. Greater stability in international markets and lower shipping costs would be key to bringing prices back to more stable levels, he said.
The increases come as Russian wheat exports through the Black Sea face new logistical pressures. Russia has restricted truck deliveries of grain to three export terminals at the ports of Novorossiysk and Taman as drone attacks on shipping routes in the region intensify.
The restrictions cover the NZT and KSK terminals at Novorossiysk and the ZTKT terminal at Taman. The three facilities have a combined annual capacity of more than 20 million tons, accounting for over 40% of Russia’s total seaborne grain exports, which supply major markets including Egypt and Turkey.
Egypt is the largest importer of Russian wheat, purchasing about 4.5 million tons from Russia in the first half of 2026, according to trade data. The country relies heavily on Black Sea supplies to meet its wheat needs.
Russian port data show that Novorossiysk exported about 1.5 million tons of wheat to Egypt in January and February, while Taman exported about 29,300 tons between Jan. 1 and Feb. 26.
