A fresh US bid to mediate the Nile dispute has drawn swift support from Egypt and Sudan, but Ethiopia’s silence highlights the structural impasse that has kept the dam conflict unresolved, and increasingly entangled with wider Horn of Africa rivalries.
This is not the first time Trump has sought to mediate the dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). During his first term, Washington hosted negotiations between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, but the talks did not produce an agreement. At the time, Trump said Egypt could “blow up that dam.”
Trump repeated that idea in different wording on Friday night. In a letter to President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, he said resolving tensions over the dam is among his top priorities, adding that he hoped the dispute would not lead to a major military conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia.
The US president said no country in the region should “unilaterally control the precious resources of the Nile and disadvantage its neighbors in the process.”
He added that “with the right technical expertise, fair and transparent negotiations and a strong US role in monitoring and coordinating between the parties, we can reach a lasting agreement for all Nile Basin countries.”
Trump said such an agreement would ensure the release of predictable volumes of water during droughts and prolonged dry years for Egypt and Sudan, “while allowing Ethiopia to generate very substantial amounts of electricity, perhaps some of which could be given, or sold to, Egypt and/or Sudan.”
For his part, El-Sisi, in a post on his Facebook account, welcomed the US initiative and Trump’s “valued” efforts to consolidate the foundations of peace and stability at the regional and international levels.
He also welcomed Trump’s attention to the centrality of the Nile issue for Egypt, calling it “the lifeline of the Egyptian people.”
He said serious and constructive cooperation with Nile Basin countries, based on the principles of international law, in a manner that achieves shared interests without causing harm to any party, remain constants underpinning Egypt’s position.
El-Sisi added that he had sent a letter to Trump reaffirming Egypt’s position and concerns related to water security, underscoring Cairo’s support for Trump’s efforts and his aspirations to continue working closely with him in the coming period.
In the same context, Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty said Saturday, during a news conference with his Bosnian counterpart Elmedin Konaković, that Egypt is keen on serious and constructive cooperation with Nile Basin countries to implement principles of international law, the principle of prior notification and the obligation not to cause harm.
Abdelatty said the Nile Basin receives around 1.6 trillion cubic metres of rainfall annually, increasing to about 7 trillion cubic metres when countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo are included, arguing that better regional coordination could address water pressures.
He underscored what Trump said about the importance of avoiding any unilateral solutions, stressing that Egypt is fully open to engaging with Nile Basin countries and using water resources.
On the Sudanese side, Transitional Sovereignty Council head Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan welcomed the US initiative.
Al-Burhan wrote on his X account, “The Government of Sudan welcomes and supports President Trump’s initiative and mediation on Nile waters to find sustainable and satisfactory solutions that preserve everyone’s rights, which helps sustain security and stability in the region.”
As of Sunday, Addis Ababa had not issued any official comment on Trump’s initiative, although Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed posted on X about inaugurating projects in the south of the country.
This initiative is not the first
Since returning to the White House, Trump has spoken repeatedly about the Renaissance Dam. In mid-2025, he referred to efforts to resolve the problem “very soon,” warned of its risks to Egypt, and said the United States had “stupidly funded the Renaissance Dam.”
This time, however, his remarks include a direct offer of mediation whose significance is heightened because it comes amid escalating conflict in the Red Sea after Israel announced its recognition of the “State of Somaliland” on the Red Sea, which had previously signed an agreement with Ethiopia over a maritime outlet. It also comes as Egyptian and Saudi views align on tensions in Yemen and the need to prevent them from being used to serve Israeli objectives of controlling the Bab El-Mandeb Strait, the southern entrance to the Red Sea.
The Washington Agreement
The US initiative will not resolve the crisis unless Ethiopia shows serious political will, former irrigation minister Mohamed Nasr Allam told Al Manassa, adding that “the ball is in Ethiopia’s court.”
The three countries previously negotiated under the supervision of the US Treasury Department and the World Bank, leading to the Washington agreement in 2020. Egypt initialed it, while Ethiopia withdrew and did not attend the signing, Allam explained. “That means there is already a draft agreement, and Ethiopia only needs to sign it for the crisis to end, if it wants to.”
Allam linked the US initiative to the conflict in the Horn of Africa and stressed the importance of reaching an agreement on the dam to stabilize that region and protect the interests of major powers there, including the United States.
The river in exchange for the sea
Concluding his remarks on the initiative, Trump said he hoped this “truly understandable dispute” over the GERD would not lead to a major military conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia. Adly Saadawy, a member of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs, did not rule that out, but called it “the last of the solutions” on the table because Nile water is tied to the Egyptian people’s right to survive and live.
Saadawy told Al Manassa that the Egyptian state does not have the option of relinquishing its water share, something the current US administration understands as it sees Egypt’s stability as the key to stability across the region.
Egypt has threatened to use “all available means” to defend its water interests. In television remarks late last year, the Egyptian foreign minister said the negotiating track with the Ethiopian side had “ended and reached a dead end,” stressing his country’s full right to use available means under international law to defend itself and its water interests.
Saadawy stressed the need to separate US mediation efforts on the dam from any “deals” related to sovereign maritime outlets, adding that Ethiopia may link resolving the dam crisis on the Blue Nile to gaining access to a maritime outlet through Somaliland.
Granting Ethiopia, and behind it Israel, the right to a military presence on the Red Sea represents a direct threat to Egypt’s national security and a chokehold on the Suez Canal, Saadawy said.
Ethiopia accuses Egypt of threatening to use force and adopting a campaign to destabilize the Horn of Africa, saying such efforts “have never cowed Ethiopia,” while Cairo says its water security is a red line that cannot be touched and that it will take all measures to ensure its protection.
A binding agreement
Mohamed Mahran, a professor of international law, said Ethiopia’s unilateral steps in filling and operating the dam violate principles of international law, especially the obligation not to cause significant harm.
International law emphasizes negotiating in good faith and reaching a consensual solution that respects the rights of all parties, Mahran told Al Manassa. He noted that the failure to share the dam’s operating data has already caused harm to downstream countries Egypt and Sudan.
Egyptian and Sudanese harm
In early October last year, unprecedented floods swept Sudan, coinciding with Ethiopia opening the Renaissance Dam’s “emergency gates.” That led to a red alert being declared in six states, including the capital, Khartoum, as well as White Nile, Sennar and Blue Nile, affecting villages and agricultural and residential areas.
In the same month, the area of riverbed lands submerged by Nile waters in Monufia and Beheira governorates rose to 1,261 feddans.
In November last year, Egypt announced it had opened the Toshka spillway to absorb “unilateral and irregular” water releases from the Renaissance Dam, warning against Addis Ababa’s continued “random approach” to managing a huge structure on an international river.
In a statement by the Ministry of Irrigation, Cairo said the absence of technical and scientific controls in operating the Ethiopian dam had exposed the Nile’s course to fluctuations with unsafe impacts.
After that, President El-Sisi said in a recorded speech at the opening session of Cairo Water Week 8, “Egypt will not stand idly by in the face of Ethiopia’s irresponsible approach and will take all necessary measures to protect its interests and water security.”
In March 2024, Irrigation Minister Hani Sewilam acknowledged that Egypt has already been affected by the dam, saying the state had managed the impact “at some cost.” He added that the Declaration of Principles stipulates that if a project causes harm to downstream countries, “there is a price that must be paid,” and that Egypt would ultimately seek to enforce that provision.
The stakes are sharpened by Egypt’s chronic water deficit. The country needs about 114 billion cubic metres of water annually, while available resources amount to just 60 to 61 billion cubic metres, including Egypt’s fixed share of 55.5 billion cubic metres from the Nile.
Without a shift in Ethiopia’s position, analysts say the renewed US push risks becoming another diplomatic pause in a dispute that has evolved into a test of regional power, security and survival—rather than a technical disagreement over water management.
