The Early Warning Unit of Sudan’s Ministry of Irrigation issued a high-level alert on Sunday, warning of imminent flooding across multiple Nile Basin provinces. This comes amid fears that sudden water outflows from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) are exacerbating the seasonal surge.
In parallel, Egypt recorded a dramatic two-meter rise in the High Dam reservoir at Aswan during September, equivalent to more than 15 billion cubic meters of water, according to professor of geology and water resources at Cairo University Abbas Sharaky.
Sudanese officials reported that water levels in the Blue and White Nile have spiked sharply, threatening to inundate farmland, low-lying areas, and key infrastructure. The warning urged residents and local officials to take urgent precautionary measures to curb the looming damage.
Former Sudanese irrigation minister Othman Al-Toum told Al Arabiya that Ethiopia had deliberately raised the GERD reservoir beyond its usual maximum for “ceremonial purposes,” increasing discharge to 730 million cubic meters per day over four days.
Al-Toum warned that the late-season surge, occurring after the typical September flood peak, poses a potentially catastrophic threat to Sudan. He urged urgent coordination with Addis Ababa to regulate outflows before disaster strikes.
In Cairo, Professor Sharaky told local media that Egypt’s High Dam remains a critical bulwark. “Without it, Aswan and southern Egypt would be submerged just like Sudan,” he said, noting that more than 95% of Egyptians live along the Nile Valley and Delta.
Ethiopia formally inaugurated the GERD earlier this month without a binding water-sharing agreement with Egypt and Sudan, triggering renewed diplomatic outrage. Egypt denounced the unilateral move at the UN Security Council, calling it a flagrant breach of international law.
During the opening ceremony, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed claimed the dam would not harm downstream nations. “We will not harm others, and we will not take what is not ours,” he said.
Egypt’s Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty swiftly rejected that assurance, accusing Ethiopia of seeking to impose a fait accompli that risks destabilizing the Horn of Africa and Eastern Nile Basin. “Egypt will not compromise on its rights, and we are fully capable of defending them,” he said during the 80th session of the UN General Assembly in New York.
Water Resources Minister Hani Sewilam echoed that stance, stating: “This dam is illegal and will remain so unless a binding legal agreement is reached by all parties.” He added that Egypt has developed contingency plans to respond to any scenario, including Ethiopia’s reported plans to build two additional dams.
Back in December 2023, Egypt officially declared the end of GERD negotiations. A Ministry of Irrigation statement pledged to closely monitor the dam’s operations and asserted Egypt’s rights under international treaties to protect its water security.
President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi has repeatedly underscored the Nile as an existential lifeline for Egypt, which depends on the river for more than 98% of its freshwater. “Preserving this resource is a matter of survival,” he said in October 2024.
In March 2024, Sewilam acknowledged GERD’s impact, saying the state had absorbed the costs of adaptation. He cited the 2015 Declaration of Principles, which states that any harm caused by the dam requires compensation. “Egypt will demand it one day,” he said.
