Egypt has activated the Toshka Spillway to shield its infrastructure from potential flooding, after facing a sudden and destabilizing surge in Nile water released from Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam, the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation announced on Saturday.
The decision comes amid warnings from Cairo over what it described as Addis Ababa’s continued “random approach” to managing a massive hydropower structure on a shared international river.
Ethiopia first reduced dam outflows to raise reservoir levels, according to the ministry's statement. Then it abruptly released a surge of water, far exceeding downstream needs, without adhering to any recognized technical protocols.
“Such practices expose the Nile River system to potentially harmful fluctuations,” read the statement, noting that such moves reflect “the absence of adequate technical and scientific controls in the operation of the Ethiopian dam.”
Cairo renewed its call for an end to Ethiopia’s unilateral dam management, warning of its direct impact on the two downstream states, Egypt and Sudan, and the safe operation of their own hydraulic infrastructure.
The ministry said several dams located downstream of the GERD were forced to adopt emergency procedures to absorb abrupt changes and maintain system stability.
As a result, Egypt has had to delay work on upgrading the Toshka Spillaway, part of a broader modernization plan for the country’s water infrastructure. The ministry described this as a costly setback driven by unpredictable upstream behavior.
The latest developments include a series of rapid and dramatic changes in Ethiopia’s dam releases. On Sept. 10, shortly after the inauguration of the dam, Ethiopia discharged around 485 million cubic meters of water. By late September, volumes jumped to 780 million cubic meters, causing Lake Nasser’s water level to drop by nearly a meter—equal to about 2 billion cubic meters of usable water.
Despite expectations for a gradual seasonal decline from 640 to 625 meters by the end of the hydrological year, Ethiopia closed the emergency spillway on Oct. 8, reducing daily discharges to between 139 and 160 million cubic meters. Ten days later, following another rise in reservoir levels, it reopened the emergency spillway and released 320 million cubic meters per day for 10 consecutive days.
On Oct. 31, Addis Ababa shut the outlet again, stabilizing flows at an average of 180 million cubic meters per day throughout the first 20 days of November—an 80% increase over the historical average for this time of year, which stands at about 100 million cubic meters.
A senior official at the Ministry of Irrigation told Al Manassa that the government has been expanding Toshka’s capacity for months to prepare for such scenarios. The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said satellite imagery and hydrological models allow Egypt to monitor changes at the dam and respond swiftly.
“Preserving a safe operating level at the Aswan High Dam is paramount,” the source said. “We must release excess water to protect the structure—but when these flows come unexpectedly, the chance of using the water productively diminishes.”
He added that excess flows are diverted either to the Nile’s main course or through the Toshka spillway, based on a set of technical calculations. The official emphasized that riverbank lands vulnerable to flooding are clearly mapped, and local governors have been instructed to evacuate communities from areas likely to be submerged.
“These riverbank zones are part of the Nile’s natural path, and construction there is illegal,” the official said, adding that the ministry is coordinating with governorates to prevent settlement on flood-prone land.
The ministry is also documenting Ethiopia’s unilateral actions in operating the GERD to be used, the official said, “whenever the Egyptian state deems necessary.”
In December 2023, Egypt declared the end of all negotiation tracks on the GERD, asserting its right under international law to defend its national and water security if endangered.
In early October 2025, unprecedented flooding swept Sudan as Ethiopia opened the emergency outlets of the GERD. Sudanese authorities issued red alerts in six states, including Khartoum, White Nile, Sennar, and Blue Nile, reporting severe damage to homes, farms, and infrastructure.
That same month, floodwaters submerged 1,261 feddans of riverbank lands in Egypt’s Menoufiya and Beheira governorates. Emergency services continue to assist affected families.
At the time, Egypt’s Ministry of Irrigation said water-level rises in riverbank areas were normal in summer, but accused Ethiopia of triggering an “artificial flood” by mismanaging dam releases. The ministry said this flood intensified water arrivals at the Aswan High Dam in a short time frame.
In a recorded speech at the Cairo Water Week in October, President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi warned that Egypt “will not stand idle in the face of Ethiopia’s irresponsible approach to the Nile,” pledging to take any measure necessary to defend national interests.
Ethiopia responded with a firm rejection, defending its “sovereign right” to use its water resources and asserting that the Nile “is not owned by one country but is a shared resource that should foster cooperation, not threats.”
In March 2024, Egypt’s Water Minister Hani Sewilam acknowledged that the GERD has harmed Egypt, saying the government had managed the impact “at a cost.”
He reminded reporters that the 2015 Declaration of Principles states that downstream harm from the dam must be compensated—and that Egypt “will seek such compensation one day.”
Egypt suffers from acute water scarcity. The country’s annual water needs amount to around 114 billion cubic meters, but it only has access to 60–61 billion, including 55.5 billion cubic meters from its share of the Nile.
