Despite expectations of a surplus in the upcoming harvest, Egypt has no plans to resume official rice exports due to concerns over the country’s share of Nile water affected by the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, four senior sources told Al Manassa.
Officials from the Agriculture Ministry, the Agricultural Export Council, and the Federation of Egyptian Industries said the government is prioritizing water security over economic gains from exports, even as companies such as Organi Group continue to announce overseas shipments.
Egypt has officially banned rice exports for over eight years, a measure reaffirmed by Customs Authority last year to conserve water resources. Yet six days after the renewed ban in 2024, Sons of Sinai—a subsidiary of the Organi Group—claimed to have exported rice to 18 countries, according to Mada Masr.
Egypt depends on the Nile for 98% of its water, but the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam has significantly reduced Egypt’s water share, according to official reports.
Although rice is a water-intensive crop, the country has consistently reported surpluses. Last season’s excess did not prompt a policy shift, and this year is no exception.
“Resuming official rice exports is unlikely under current conditions,” said a senior Agriculture Ministry source familiar with the rice file.
Hamdi El-Mouafi, director of the National Rice Production Development Project at the ministry, estimated the 2025 harvest at around 6 million tons of paddy rice—equivalent to 4 million tons of white rice. Domestic consumption is estimated at 3.5 million tons, suggesting a minimum surplus of 500,000 tons.
The rice planting season in Egypt begins in May, with harvesting between August and late October. Processed rice begins reaching markets from November.
No green light for exports
Mustafa El-Naggari, head of the rice committee at the Agricultural Export Council, ruled out any official export approval in the current political climate. He cited Ethiopia’s continued construction on the Renaissance Dam and its impact on Egypt’s strategic water reserves.
El-Naggari said the issue remains sensitive and that the government is unlikely to issue export licenses while tensions persist.
Mostafa Abdel-Gawad, board member of the Rice Division at the Federation of Egyptian Industries, said certain companies, including Sons of Sinai, have been able to export under special arrangements, not through any formal or publicly accessible government channels.
Abdel-Gawad said last year’s surplus encouraged companies to export to Gulf countries, North Africa, and European countries, including Italy, Greece, and Belgium.
Meanwhile, member of the rice division of the Chamber of Grain Industry Mostafa El-Soltisy noted that some companies have paid $150 per ton in export fees to ship rice, but without receiving official permits.
El-Soltisy also pointed to a recent drop in rice prices—around 800 Egyptian pounds (around $16) per ton—due to high supply and lower domestic demand ahead of the new harvest.
Wholesale prices currently range between 21,000 and 26,500 pounds ($420–530) per ton for white rice, while unprocessed paddy prices sit between 17,000 and 17,300 pounds ($340–346) for medium-grain, and 14,200 to 14,500 pounds ($284–290) for fine-grain rice, according to El-Soltisy.
