Egypt is grappling with a daily shortfall of over 1.2 billion cubic feet of natural gas, threatening to derail its summer energy plans, a petroleum ministry source told Al Manassa.
The source, familiar with the supply file at the ministry, said local supply currently ranges between 4.8 and 5 billion cubic feet per day—leaving a gap of 1 to 1.2 billion cubic feet below the June demand of 6.1 to 6.2 billion.
According to them, this gap is affecting the operational performance of several vital economic sectors.
On Friday, the Ministry of Petroleum announced implementation of an emergency plan to prioritize natural gas supply, following the suspension of gas imports “from the east” due to regional military escalations—an indirect reference to the halt in Israeli gas flows.
Industry stalls amid gas cut
Gas supplies to heavy industries, including fertilizers, petrochemical, cement and ceramics plants, were suspended as of Friday morning, a source from the Chamber of Chemical Industries told Al Manassa.
Export-oriented factories are now limited to serving the domestic market.
“This is the second production halt in under a month,” the source said. “Industrial revenues could fall by up to 30% in the second quarter.”
The source added that exporters are preparing to invoke “force majeure” clauses in future contracts, citing geopolitical instability as a key risk to gas flows.
Electricity grid under pressure
A source at the Egyptian Electric Utility and Consumer Protection Regulatory Agency (ERA) told Al Manassa that the power sector has been exempted from gas supply cuts, currently receiving 3.1 billion cubic feet per day. However, it needs over 3.25 billion to handle peak summer loads.
They warned that continued shortages may reduce current generation capacity of around 34,000 megawatts and raise the likelihood of further cuts to industrial gas supply.
The source added that load-shedding remains off the table for now, as the The Ministry of Electricity and Renewable Energy coordinates with the Ministry of Petroleum to rely partially on fuel oil, operating some traditional power plants with it as an alternative to natural gas.
Fuel reserves
On his end, petroleum expert Medhat Yousef urged the government to expand crude and fuel imports to boost reserves. Monthly imports, currently valued at $1.4 billion, are fully consumed, he noted.
As part of the government's efforts, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly held a meeting on Friday to follow up on plans to secure fuel and gas needs. He emphasized the urgency of operating the three gasification vessels to ensure supply continuity, especially with peak summer electricity consumption approaching.
Madbouly confirmed that Egypt has existing contracts and incoming gas shipments, along with reserves of fuel oil, to reinforce the energy system's stability.
The government began electricity rationing in July 2023 with one-hour daily power cuts, later extending them to two hours in January and then three hours in June. The Electricity Holding Company cited increased loads on the grid and high temperatures. By September 2023, the crisis reportedly eased after Egypt signed contracts to import large quantities of gas, oil, and mazut fuel.
Last month, the Ministry of Petroleum welcomed Energos Power, owned by US-based New Fortress Energy, which arrived from Germany with a storage capacity of 174,000 cubic meters of LNG.
Egypt’s reliance on Israeli gas imports, which began in 2020, sparked controversy not only because of public opposition to dealings with Israel but also because it marked the shift from a net gas exporter to an importer. With Israeli flows now inconsistent, Egypt is entering a new era of dependence on LNG.
Early Friday, Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran, declared to “last for days,” aimed at preventing Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons. The strike initially killed senior Iranian military officials, including the chief of staff and Revolutionary Guard commander, as well as nuclear scientists.
Iran responded with six waves of missiles and drones targeting Israel, killing three people and injuring 172.
