Will GEM deliver the promised tourism boom?
As Egypt unveils the Grand Egyptian Museum/GEM, touted as the world’s largest monument to ancient civilization, the question is can this cultural achievement meaningfully transform a fragile tourism economy, or will it stand primarily as a symbol of ambition amid broader economic uncertainty? The grandeur of the project risks obscuring a deeper paradox: nations with the richest ancient legacies often occupy a marginal place in the global tourism landscape.
Countries with deep historical roots like Iraq, Syria, India, China, Yemen, Peru, and Mexico possess civilizations that shaped human history, yet few host museums capable of commanding global attention on par with those in London, Berlin, Paris, or New York, and, more recently, Dubai.
From that perspective, the GEM marks a genuine milestone worth acknowledging. It constitutes a significant step towards expanding Egypt’s service exports through tourism and attracting a larger share of international visitors.
Egypt is among the few developing countries running a surplus in service exports, mainly from tourism, estimated at about $17 billion in 2024/2025.
From this position of relative strength, the question becomes whether the GEM can further tilt the balance in Egypt’s favor over the coming years.
We aren’t a big player
Tourism potential, however, is best gauged not by revenue alone but by the number of foreign visitors, since each traveler’s spending reverberates quickly across multiple sectors of the economy.
Visitor numbers peaked in 2010 at about 15 million, declined sharply through a decade of political turmoil, then recovered to around 13 million by 2019, the World Bank’s last pre-pandemic reading. By 2024, arrivals surpassed the previous peak, reaching 15.7 million.
Yet, when set against comparable destinations, Egypt remains far from a global heavyweight. Turkey, for example, expanded from 10.5 million visitors in 2000 to 33 million in 2010 and 52 million in 2019, nearly four times Egypt’s current intake.
Was it the right call?
If Egypt is a mid-tier player in global tourism, was spending more than $1 billion on the Grand Egyptian Museum a sound decision? It appears so. Tourism remains a vital pillar of the national economy, and strengthening it would amplify its multiplier effects across a wide range of sectors.
One measure of this importance is tourism’s share of total export earnings: 22.2% in 2006, rising to 27% in 2019, according to the latest World Bank data.
The story is different in Turkey. Despite attracting more visitors and generating higher revenues, tourism accounted for just 16% of its total exports in 2019. Italy’s share was smaller still—8.2%, even as it earned nearly $52 billion that same year.
So, while Egypt lags behind in visitor volume, its tourism income carries greater weight in a smaller, less diversified economy.
In the short term, that makes the museum an investment with tangible payoff. Over time, however, heavy reliance on tourism exposes the economy to external shocks and fluctuations beyond its control.
Tourism no substitute for development
It makes sense for Egypt to continue investing in tourism—cultural, leisure, medical, even educational. Yet tourism is a fragile sector, vulnerable to shocks, and we live in a region where instability, political and otherwise, seems deeply entrenched.
True development requires building strength in higher-value industries: telecommunications, financial consulting, healthcare, and higher and postgraduate education. These sectors depend on sustained investment in human capital—education, public health, and infrastructure, including research and development.
Tourism still rests largely on modest value-added services: hotels, restaurants and their related services.
Nations do not advance through museums alone. They progress when cultural assets are paired with long-term development. Without that balance, a country like Egypt remains exposed to the same disruptions that can close airports overnight—whether political unrest or a global pandemic.