Betrayed by the shepherd, who will the wolf devour after Doha?

Since the 1980s, the US military presence in the Gulf has been sold as a safety net and defensive wall for kingdoms and emirates awash in oil wealth but lacking armies capable of protecting that wealth or confronting threats.

That logic was tested only once, against Iraq. At that time, US-Israeli plans aligned with the wishes of the Gulf regimes, which were severely damaged by Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait. A consensus was reached to eliminate him, and with him they also brought down the state that prominent Egyptian geopolitical scholar Gamal Hamdan described as “the apex of the Arab power triangle in Asia, which included alongside Baghdad both Damascus and Riyadh.”

The flock and the wolf

When faced with real threats that clashed with US-Israeli strategy, American bases in the Gulf shifted roles. They became intelligence and logistical hubs, facilitating operations that harmed the national security of Middle Eastern states—including the Gulf countries themselves. At minimum, these bases have allowed developments in the region to unfold without intervention so long as Washington and Tel Aviv’s interests were untouched.

By accepting American protection, Gulf states, and other Arab states, handed the flock over to the wolf for safekeeping. But no member of the flock would be safe unless they rebelled against the wolf.

The 2019 Aramco attack made this clear. Gulf states poured their budget surpluses into the arteries of the US economy, seeking protection, but in reality they tossed their money into the sea. It was as if they had entrusted their security and stability to their own strategic adversary. When the Houthis targeted Saudi Aramco facilities, the crown jewel of regional oil wealth, American bases stood silent. Not a single missile was intercepted, and no early warning issued to their allies in Riyadh.

Six years later, history repeated itself with Israel’s strike on Doha, the capital of Qatar, Washington’s chief non-NATO ally.

The bombing of Doha was not a mere assassination attempt or “retaliatory strike” like Israel’s dirty operations in Tunis or Beirut decades ago. It was far more dangerous: a spectacular collapse of the long-hyped “American umbrella,” touted since the Carter Doctrine in the 1980s as the US commitment to use force to protect its interests in the Gulf, particularly oil.

These events proved that the most strategic US base in the Middle East is not Al Udeid in Qatar, nor Al Dhafra in the UAE, nor even the Fifth Fleet in Bahrain. It is the occupying state of Israel itself. Since its implantation into the heart of the Arab nation in 1948, this state was designed to function as the West’s colonial watchman in the Arab world and a barrier separating Arab Africa from Arab Asia.

It has been granted absolute immunity, unlimited weaponry, and a green light to commit whatever crimes it wishes on Arab soil.

Colonialism by proxy

In his book “The Strategy of Colonization and Liberation,” Gamal Hamdan described this reality bluntly. “Global imperialism and Zionism met on a single historical road of mutual colonial interests. The Jewish homeland became a dependent base and guaranteed ally in the service of imperialism. That was the price for creating it and ensuring its survival. Colonialism created Israel through politics and war, sustains it with weapons and money, and openly guarantees its survival,” Hamdan wrote.

Four decades ago, Hamdan called the Zionist state “a colonizer in its own right and by proxy… playing a functional role.” He wrote that it “splits Arab geography, ruins its cohesion, blocks its unity, drains its resources, and serves as a ready-made tool against liberation movements.”

This was not just a nationalist theorist swept up in Nasserist fervor. History has since confirmed the accuracy of his reading.

Over time, Israel was revealed as the natural extension of Western colonialism. Talk of “partnerships” or “alliances” between the West and Middle Eastern states is nothing but a fig leaf. The US has no allies; its political doctrine recognizes only subordination. When the interests of its clients diverge from those of its real ally, Washington sides, without hesitation, with Israel; the long-term investment.

In late 2023, before withdrawing from the US presidential race, Senator Robert F. Kennedy Jr. bluntly acknowledged Israel’s strategic role: “If Israel disappeared, Russia, China would be controlling the Middle East, and they control 90% of the world’s oil supply. That would be cataclysmic for US national security. Israel is a bulwark for us. It’s almost like having an aircraft carrier in the Middle East. It gives us ears and eyes in the region and secures our oil and strategic interests.”

That admission stripped bare every claim about a “values-based relationship” between Washington and what is often called “the only democracy in the Middle East,” one that claims to adopt “Western values.” The truth is simpler: Israel is a forward base for the US in the Arab heartland. It costs no American blood, performs dirty work on Washington’s behalf, and guarantees perpetual instability to feed the arms industry.

Money for security

If Israel is the real base, then what purpose do US bases in the Gulf serve? The answer in brief is that they are auxiliary tools in service of the main base.

The Aramco strike revealed that advanced defense systems would not be activated to shield allies’ critical facilities. Israel’s recent strike on Doha proved Washington’s complicity in violating the sovereignty of a strategic partner that hosts the Combined Air Operations Center/CAOC, America’s most important air command hub in the region.

Why, then, do Gulf states continue to pay billions to Washington, whose president openly declared early in his first term that their security followed the principle of “money for protection”? He bluntly told them, “You might not be there for two weeks without us. You have to pay for your military... You have to pay.”

Accepting the continued presence of these bases in this way means that the national sovereignty of the Gulf states, and other countries in the region, will remain vulnerable and subject to violation by the Zionist enemy.

Israel has already wreaked havoc, signaling to governments that what happened in Doha, and earlier in Damascus, Tehran, Beirut, and Sanaa, is but a message to the entire Middle East: “Israel’s long arm will reach every corner of the region.”

Backed by Washington, Israel’s arrogant messages aim to spread terror across the region so states will bow to its agenda, from forced displacement to imposing full hegemony. At that point, disavowals condemning Zionist crimes will be useless, as will excuses that the US “betrayed” its promises and failed to defend its allies. It has already been proven beyond doubt: Washington is the wolf disguised as the shepherd.

Crossroads like no other

The time has come for honest reflection. The region’s security and stability cannot and will not be under an American umbrella. The only path lies in stepping out from under Washington’s coattails and forging regional cooperation based on shared interests and confronting common threats.

No state is immune. No protector exists except collective defense built on unity of interest.

The region has one option: move immediately towards serious negotiations among Arab League states, together with major regional players like Iran and Turkey, to settle the burning conflicts in Sudan, Libya, Syria, and Yemen, while forging integrated economic cooperation and mutual defense agreements. Otherwise the Israeli wolf, under US protection, will devour what remains of the flock.

This is a pivotal historical moment that demands extraordinary courage from all sides. If Arab capitals do not change course and build relations capable of confronting mounting threats, they will meet the same fate as those who preceded them into the abyss.