
One or none! Why Egyptians are having fewer babies
At just five years old, Farah will grow up as an only child. Her father, Karem Gaber, a certified accountant in his thirties, and his wife made the deliberate decision not to have more children.
“I cannot confidently say I can provide a dignified life for more than one child,” Karem tells Al Manassa.
This decision was not made on a whim. During their engagement, Karem had conveyed to his now wife that he did not want to have children. However, she persuaded him otherwise, driven by a fear of societal stigma and her own maternal instincts. After welcoming Farah, Karem remained steadfast in his refusal to have another child, despite his wife’s persistent appeals.
Seven years into their marriage, Karem’s financial situation has improved. He now owns a car and has transitioned from renting to owning an apartment, yet his concerns over Egypt’s economic downturn persist. “Raising children is an immense responsibility. How can I ensure they at least receive a quality education?” he wonders.
For Karem, providing a good standard of living amid relentless inflation presents an ongoing challenge. Having received his education during a period of relative economic stability with minimal competitive pressure, he now struggles with the rising costs of his daughter’s tuition.
While not completely happy with her school, it is the best he can afford. “I pay approximately 50,000 pounds ($960) annually for her education. My wife and I manage, but affording the same for another child is inconceivable.”
A persistent decline
According to the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics/CAPMAS, Egypt’s annual urban inflation rate marginally increased from 26.4% in Sept. 2024 to 26.5% in Oct., largely due to escalating fuel prices. The nationwide annual inflation rate for Oct. 2024 stood at 26.3%, a decline from 38.5% in Oct. 2023.
Simultaneously, Egypt has witnessed a significant drop in birth rates over recent years. In Nov. 2024, CAPMAS reported a continuous decline in birth rates over the past five years.
Data reveals that it took 268 days (approximately eight months and 28 days) to add one million people to bring Egypt’s population to 107 million, whereas the previous million was reached in just 250 days, and the one before that in 245 days.
The latest statistics show the trend continuing, with a further additional million added to the population in 287 days from 2 November 2024 to 16 August 2025. This is 19 days more than the previous figure.
The link between mounting inflation and declining birth rates is unmistakable. Experts consulted by Al Manassa attribute this trend to the soaring costs of marriage, increasing emigration among young Egyptians of both genders, and the financial pressures that undermine family stability and job security.
Akram Alfy, a journalist and researcher at the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, projects that, within the next decade, Egypt will record one birth per minute. He references a Ministry of Health report indicating that Egypt currently registers a birth every 25 seconds—down from one every 15 seconds merely three years ago.
According to CAPMAS, this decline is attributed to the decrease in the average number of daily births to 5,385 in the period when the population grew from 106 to 107 million, compared with 5,599 when the population reached 106 million and 5,683 at 105 million. The equivalent rate to bring the population to 108 million was again lower at 5,165 daily births acorrding to an Aug. 2025 CAPMAS report.
The socioeconomic perspective
Sociologist Hala Mansour of Benha University attributes lower birth rates to declining marriage rates caused by escalating costs, as well as rising divorce rates, both intrinsically tied to economic pressures.
Samia Khader, a sociology professor at Ain Shams University, underscores the significant rise in youth migration abroad. The aspiration for upward mobility and improved economic conditions drives young Egyptians to leave the country, she explains.
Even families that once opposed their children emigrating now actively encourage it as a way of securing financial stability. “Inflation doesn’t merely affect childbearing decisions; it fundamentally alters perceptions of marriage itself,” Khader asserts.
According to the World Bank, Egyptian migration rates have surged in recent years. Seventy-four percent of emigrants relocate to Gulf countries, 18% to Europe and North America, and 8% to other destinations.
Is the state driving the decline?
President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi has consistently identified Egypt’s population growth as one of the country’s most pressing challenges, often citing it as a primary strain on national resources. Government officials have similarly attributed economic hardships to rapid population expansion.
The government asserts that its awareness campaigns have contributed to the declining birth rates over the past five years. However, sociology professor Samia Khader refutes this claim, arguing that the state’s current family planning efforts pale in comparison to previous decades. “The government once launched extensive family planning campaigns through radio, television, films, and drama. Today, its efforts are minimal, perhaps a mere fraction of what they once were,” she contends.
The state has intensified efforts to curb population growth through a combination of cautionary messaging and public awareness initiatives. Among these are the Ministry of Social Solidarity’s “Two Is Enough” campaign, which advocates for a two-child policy, and the Ministry of Health’s “Your Right to Plan” initiative, which provides free family planning services in partnership with the United Nations Population Fund and the EU.
The growing trend of child-free living
The decline in birth rates is accompanied by an increase in the number of pages and groups on social media dedicated to the childfree community, raising questions about its impact on slowing population growth.
No official statistics exist on the prevalence in Egypt of those who choose not to have children, as most discussions on the subject take place in private social media spaces. Many participants cite financial instability alongside broader national and global concerns as key motivations for not having children.
For example, Dalia Mohsen, 28, a lecturer and novelist who is childfree, feels sorrow for children coming into this world. “Having children isn't just about the moment we live in now; they will suffer when they face life in the coming years. The world is witnessing wars, environmental changes, the dominance of artificial intelligence, inflation, and other threats.”
Dalia also expresses concerns about genetic health risks. “I suffer from chronic conditions like diabetes and hypertension. Why would I subject a child to the same fate?” she asks.
Unlike Karem, who chose to have one child, Dalia remains steadfast in her decision to remain childfree. While her choice was originally personal, economic factors have further solidified her stance two and a half years into her marriage. “It’s overwhelming,” she admits.
“I prefer to maintain control over my life, which I would lose if I had children. I don’t want my children to grow up resenting me for bringing them into a world where I cannot ensure financial stability or provide them with the power and influence necessary for promising career opportunities,” says Dalia, who hails from Sharqiya Governorate in Egypt’s Delta.
The young novelist was fortunate to have a life partner who also embraced a childfree lifestyle, easing many of her internal struggles. Expressing such views in a rural community is no simple feat; she had long refrained from openly sharing her beliefs to avoid becoming a target of ridicule or harsh criticism in her conservative environment. The fear of backlash and potential social persecution loomed over her should she publicly affirm her decision.
“I had to confront my family and community with my choice to prevent pregnancy after enduring repeated prayers and pity-filled pleas due to my years of marriage without conceiving,” Dalia says.
Meanwhile, Mai Ashraf, 28, identifies as childfree but acknowledges that her stance might shift under pressure from a future spouse. “Rising inflation strengthens my conviction,” the young doctor from Sharqia Governorate tells Al Manassa. “In the past, striving for upward mobility was a reasonable goal. Now, merely maintaining one’s social standing is an immense challenge—let alone raising children.”
According to Mai, the number of childfree individuals in Egypt is substantial and growing. However, this trend remains largely undocumented, as many hesitate to express their views openly for fear of societal and cultural backlash.
The one-child compromise
Sociology professor Mohamed Shokr downplays the influence of childfree movements on declining birth rates. Instead, he attributes the shift to greater awareness among younger generations about the financial realities of child-rearing, leading many to opt for one or two children at most.
This aligns with a survey conducted by Al Manassa among a sample of individuals who are either engaged or recently married. The survey included 26 participants, the majority of whom were between 25 and 45 years old and held higher education degrees. Among them, 19.2% supported the idea of remaining childfree, citing rising living costs that are not matched by income increases. Meanwhile, 80.8% opposed the idea, emphasizing their preference for having one or two children to ensure a decent quality of life for their families.
According to the survey, most respondents felt unable to make a major decision such as choosing to remain childfree. However, the majority insisted on limiting the number of children to one or two to provide them with better living conditions.
Dalia Mohsen remains resolute in her decision to remain childfree, and Karem Gaber is committed to having only one child and ensuring that his daughter has the best possible opportunities. He hopes to secure a future where she can access quality education, which would enhance her prospects for development and potentially enable her to work abroad.
(*) A version of this article first appeared in Arabic on Jan. 27, 2025.