Arab lists hold the keys to Israel’s next government

With the final results in Israel’s elections expected in the coming hours, the likely outcome remains unclear. In their current make up, both the main coalitions, the Netanyahu camp (predicted 53 seats) and Eisenkot’s opposition Change bloc (predicted 48 seats) will fail to achieve a majority of 61 seats. Unaligned parties, in effect the two Arab lists, are predicted to win 19 seats, apparently giving them a key role.

Head of the Joint List Yousef Jabareen expressed willingness to aid the opposition. “We are ready and prepared to pave the way for the ousting of the Netanyahu government. Against a government of bloodshed, against a politics of supremacy, racism, and exclusion,” he posted on X. “The change comes through Jewish-Arab partnership, a true and equal partnership. No less than that, and no more than that,” he added.

The Joint List, which is likely to win 12 seats, is made up of Hadash, which identifies as an Arab-Jewish socialist party; Ta’al, which describes itself as an Arab movement for renewal; and Balad, a Palestinian Arab nationalist party.

The Joint List has ruled out formally joining a coalition which included parties that back the war on Gaza, but could provide the votes to prop up a minority government formed from the Zionist opposition parties.

The other Arab list, Raam, a more Islamically oriented party with its base among the Bedouin community, already has brief experience of being part of a governing coalition in 2021. The list is expected to win 7 seats.

Palestinian citizens of Israel, have voted in unprecedented numbers. Turnout in the largest Arab population centers Nazareth (73.5%), Umm El-Fahm (80.0%), Rahat (84.8%), and Tayibe (80.7%) was higher than the national figure of 73.3%.

Opposition parties need to decide

The Zionist parties making up the opposition bloc have shown little enthusiasm for relying on their Palestinian fellow citizens to gain power. The sole exception is Yair Golan, leader of the centre-left Democrats, who has backed the idea of working with the parties led by Palestinian citizens of Israel.

AP reported that small rallies were held overnight in Tel Aviv, and in more conservative Jerusalem, in support of a coalition that includes Arab-led parties.

Liberal leaning Israeli newspaper Haaretz called in an editorial on Thursday for the opposition to form a government with Arab parties. A stance echoed by The Economist, which warned of the possibility of strikes against Iran or further escalation in the West Bank as a means for Netanyahu to cling on. “If large-scale violence resumes in either place he might argue that Israel needs him to stay on and lead an emergency ‘unity’ government,” it wrote.

The opposition fears that Netanyahu could use a security crisis to stall or block a new government. Before the election, Netanyahu had pressed Trump to launch a joint attack on Iran, but Washington held off, partly because Israeli military chief of staff Eyal Zamir warned it could disrupt the vote.

A “national unity” government, bringing together elements from both Netanyahu’s and Eisenkot’s blocs and marginalizing the Arab parties is also causing tension within the Change bloc. Yisrael Beytenu Chairman Avigdor Liberman has reportedly cut ties with the opposition bloc and is pushing for a unity government, according to a Wednesday N12 News report.

Likud allegations, police denials

Netanyahu’s Likud party claimed that the elections in the State of Israel were stolen by Arab parties through “serious criminal offenses involving bribery, threats, violence, forgery, and the use of prohibited software to mobilize voters.”

They went on to blame Qatar and Turkey for the strong turnout by Arab voters. In response, Central Elections Committee chair Justice Noam Sohlberg asked intelligence chief David Zini to investigate allegations of foreign interference. 

Israel Police, however,  rejected Likud's claims that the election had been "stolen" on Thursday morning, stating that there was no investigative or intelligence evidence to support the allegations.

Regarding the possibility of a minority government CNN quoted a source close to Netanyahu saying that he plans to “neutralize this possibility by all means, including launching an attack on Iran or enlisting President Trump to intervene in Israeli politics on his behalf.”

Once the official results are announced, likely by Nov. 4, Israel’s president will pick the leader with potential to form a government, who then has 28 days to form a coalition with other parties. Should no majority of MKs elect a government, Netanyahu will remain in post as a caretaker premier until new elections are held.