Al Manassa analysis: Nearly half of passing Thanawiya Amma students score below 70%

A record cohort size masked a sharp decline in individual pass rates among students taking this year’s Thanawiya Amma (modern system), Egypt’s national high-school diploma. The overall number of successful students rose, but purely because of higher applicant volume rather than because of improved academic performance.

Two diploma systems currently run in parallel in Egypt: the modern system, introduced in the 2024/25 academic year, and the old system, which is being phased out and will end entirely starting next year. Both are part of a broader set of Ministry of Education reforms to the national secondary-school system.

The pass rate fell to 75.1%—the lowest level since the 2021/22 academic year—down from 79.2% last year. An analysis by Al Manassa of a database containing 919,397 individual student records shows that nearly half of passing students were concentrated in low-to-mid-tier score ranges, while the number of top achievers shrank.

This trend that will directly impact the upcoming university admissions process, in which each student’s percentage score — not their preference of major — determines which subjects they are eligible to study.

Ministry of Education data shows that 883,690 students registered for the Thanawiya Amma (modern system) examinations this year. Of those, 825,867 attended and 620,314 passed, yielding a pass rate of 75.1% compared to 79.2% last year. At the same time, the total number of students who passed rose by approximately 14.4% compared to 542,184 last year, coinciding with a 19.7% increase in total registrants.

Consequently, the decline in the pass percentage does not reflect a drop in successful candidates, but rather a decrease in individual passing odds within a significantly larger cohort than the previous year.

The database reveals that the median student among successful candidates achieved a score of 225 out of 320 marks, equivalent to 70.3%. Roughly 304,000 students, representing 48.7% of successful candidates, scored below 70%. Meanwhile, only 160,868 students, approximately one-quarter of passing candidates, scored above 80%.

High achievers scoring 90% or higher totaled 42,704 students, accounting for 6.8% of successful candidates, with the figure dropping to just 10,321 students in the 95%-and-above bracket. A single student achieved a perfect score of 320 out of 320, while four students achieved 319.5 marks.

All three specialization tracks within the Thanawiya Amma (modern system) recorded lower pass rates compared to last year. The Mathematics track logged 81.6%, down from 85.8% last year; the Sciences track fell from 79.6% to 75.4%; and the Literary track dropped from 73.6% to 69.2%, retaining the lowest pass rate among the three streams.

Pass rates by specialization track (modern system)

Despite lower pass rates, the absolute number of successful candidates increased across every track: by 50,537 students in the Science track, 21,057 in the Mathematics track, and 6,536 in the Literary track. This growth was driven entirely by higher student volume rather than better pass rates, as total applicants rose from 738,243 to 883,690 this year (a 19.7% increase), and attendee numbers grew by 20.6%.

Overall Pass Rate Comparison

In contrast, candidate numbers under the old system fell sharply as the modern system rollout continued. A total of 4,172 students registered, 3,620 attended, and 2,610 passed, yielding a pass rate of 72.1% compared to 72.7% last year, when 46,856 students had registered.

Score distribution map

The score distribution map shows the largest cluster of passing students were concentrated in the 50—60% range, making up 20.5% of total passing students, and in the 60—70% range, making up 28.2%. The number of students passing declines steadily at higher score ranges.

Students closely monitor this distribution ahead of university admissions, alongside total seat quotas to be set by the Ministry of Higher Education when announcing admissions tiers and minimum admission thresholds.

Admissions coordination outlook

Comparing this year’s results with historical score distributions suggests that 2026 university placement thresholds will remain largely stable, with a slight downward tendency rather than a general increase. However, medical faculties may prove an exception if university intake quotas are cut.

These projections rest on a model comparing overall score distributions to past thresholds, rather than direct track-by-track calculations within the dataset, as official Ministry data lacks fields for academic track or governorate. Consequently, the following figures represent estimated likely ranges rather than final cutoffs.

Most Likely Admissions Cutoff Projections – Modern System

(*)A note on methodology

Al Manassa analyzed a dataset of 919,397 unique records detailing seating numbers, names, total scores, and student status. The dataset contained no duplicate seating numbers or missing entries. Percentages were calculated by dividing total scores by 320 marks.

According to accompanying technical documentation, 93,530 records represent the difference between total records and reported test takers, accounting for total absences. Score distribution calculations were restricted exclusively to records categorized as “First Session Pass” — students who passed outright in the initial exam round, without needing a resit in the later second sitting — with scores of at least 160 marks.

Because the dataset omits fields specifying system, track, or governorate, this report relied on official Ministry statements for track comparisons and pass rates, using the raw dataset solely to map score distributions across comparable records. Al Manassa could not precisely measure the score distribution within each individual track using the available data; consequently, track-specific projections remain estimates based on macro distribution comparisons with previous years.