The Suez Canal Authority expects 15,500 ships to transit the waterway this fiscal year, up 20% from 13,000 a year earlier, according to the 2026/27 investment plan for Egypt’s economic authorities, reviewed by Al Manassa.
The revised forecast reflects the authority’s reassessment of shipping patterns after repeated updates to gauge the impact of the US–Iran conflict. The canal has unexpectedly benefited from the regional crisis, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz increasing Red Sea traffic as an alternative route for energy shipments.
The impact is already evident, as oil tanker transits through the canal rose by about one-third in April, lifting monthly revenue to $419 million (around 21 billion Egyptian pounds), its highest level since early 2024 and up 27% from a year earlier. Ship traffic during FY2025/26 also increased 10% from the previous year.
The US–Iran war resumed last week with reciprocal strikes, after Tehran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the US military resumed its blockade of Iranian ports, raising the prospect of a wider conflict.
The report does not estimate when global shipping companies will fully return to the canal, but projects continued gradual improvement, with annual traffic expected to reach about 20,000 ships by FY2029/30.
The outlook coincides with Danish shipping group Maersk’s announcement late last week that it would resume routing vessels through the Suez Canal on services between the Middle East and the US East Coast instead of around the Cape of Good Hope. The shipping giant said the move would cut voyage times to about seven days from 14.
The Suez Canal Authority (SCA) aims to generate about $10.5 billion in annual revenue by FY2029/30, based on projected revenue from cargo transiting the waterway.
According to the SCA’s investment plan, canal revenue reached a record $9.4 billion in FY2022/23 before falling to $7.1 billion in FY2023/24 and then dropping sharply to $3.8 billion by the end of FY2024/25 because of Red Sea security disruptions and attacks on commercial vessels by Yemen’s Ansar Allah in response to Israel’s war in Gaza.
Since December 2023, major global shipping lines have rerouted vessels around the Cape of Good Hope instead of using the Red Sea, which is the shortest trade route between Europe and Asia via the Suez Canal, to avoid Houthi attacks on commercial shipping.
The disruption cut canal revenue, one of Egypt’s main sources of foreign currency, by more than 60% during FY2023/24. But after fighting eased last year following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, the canal’s performance showed signs of a partial recovery.
Separately, the SCA has allocated 3.5 billion pounds for strategic projects aimed at improving the waterway’s efficiency and increasing revenue from canal-related activities.
The investment plan allocates 1.1 billion pounds to develop the navigation channel, 735 million pounds to upgrade transit lanes, and 239 million pounds to maintain service berths and procure equipment and spare parts for tugboats.
The remaining funds will be used to modernize shipyards and workshops, upgrade the authority’s buildings and facilities, and implement green economy and carbon emissions reduction projects.
