Regional experts warn that the Arabian Gulf is on the verge of becoming a “ball of fire” as US forces prepare to impose a total blockade on Iranian ports starting at 5 pm Cairo time today. The move signals a transition from failed diplomacy to a potentially fiercer stage of warfare, following the collapse of negotiations in Islamabad on Sunday.
Mohamed Mohsen Abo El-Nour, president of the Arab Forum for Analyzing Iranian Policies, told Al Manassa that the current escalation is a direct consequence of eight years of friction since the unilateral US withdrawal from the nuclear deal in 2018. He emphasized that such deep-seated complexities “cannot dissolve in limited hours or in a single day of negotiations.”
“The US is not maneuvering with this blockade,” said military and strategic expert Samir Ragheb warning that if the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) fires even a “single shot” at blockading forces, it would trigger a massive confrontation rooted in the US principle of self-defense. Ragheb estimated that while the US might struggle to sustain high-intensity combat beyond 100 days, Iran has the “historical experience” and internal support from “religious authorities” to endure a conflict lasting four to five years.
“By way of comparison, with due difference, Ukraine has withstood its war against Russia for the fourth consecutive year,” Ragheb noted, adding that just as Ukraine relies on NATO, Iran has secured vital support from Russian and Chinese allies. He stressed that Tehran would view anything less than a satisfactory agreement as a “surrender” it is unwilling to accept.
The blockade, announced yesterday by the US Central Command (CENTCOM) under orders from President Donald Trump, aims to halt all maritime traffic entering or exiting Iranian coastal areas. CENTCOM stated the measure would be applied “neutrally” to all nations but clarified it would not obstruct non-Iranian transit through the Strait of Hormuz. US naval forces have already advised mariners to monitor radio Channel 16 for “navigational warnings” as the deadline approaches.
Tehran’s response has been one of immediate defiance. The IRGC warned that if its ports are targeted, “no port in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman will be safe.” While Colonel Ibrahim Dhu Al-Faqari, spokesperson for the Khatam Al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, stated that the Strait of Hormuz remains open to non-military ships under “intelligent supervision,” he vowed that “enemy ships” would be strictly barred.
The urgency of the situation was reflected in maritime traffic early Monday. Shipping data, Reuters reported, showed tankers such as the “Aurora,” carrying Iranian products, and the “New Future,” carrying diesel from the UAE, hurried to exit the Gulf through the strait to beat the 5 pm deadline.
This military escalation follows a formal declaration by Vice President JD Vance that talks in Islamabad—aimed at ending the war that began on February 28—had reached a dead end. Trump subsequently took to Truth Social to announce he would block all ships and oil tankers to restart the war at a more aggressive pace.
The prospect of a blockade has sparked a global outcry. International Maritime Organization Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez described the risks to thousands of seafarers as “extremely worrying.” Beijing and Moscow both warned of devastating impacts on global markets, with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stating that a blockade “does not serve the common interests of the international community.”
Western allies have also expressed deep reservations. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told the BBC that UK “will not be envolved” in the blockade, while Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles called the plan “meaningless.” In a bid to maintain maritime safety without joining the belligerents, French President Emmanuel Macron announced that France and Britain would hold a conference to form a “purely defensive” multinational mission to secure ship passage through the strait.
