On Sunday, the Rapid Support Forces captured El-Fasher, capital of North Darfur, in a major escalation of Sudan’s civil war. The takeover deals a devastating blow to the Sudanese Armed Forces and deepens fears about the disintegration of Sudan as a unified state.
“This marks the beginning of the collapse of the Sudanese nation-state,” said Amani Al-Taweel, an African affairs expert at the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, speaking to Al Manassa.
The fall of El-Fasher to the RSF followed days of fierce combat that ended with the fall of the Sudanese army’s Sixth Division headquarters—its last stronghold in the city. Gen. Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, head of the Sudanese army, confirmed the retreat the next day, saying it was to “avoid further bloodshed.”
El-Fasher, located over 800 kilometers west of Khartoum, is not only the capital of North Darfur but also the symbolic and strategic heart of the region. Until now, it was the final regional capital not yet seized by the RSF since war broke out in April 2023.
The city endured an 18-month siege with dwindling food, medicine, and humanitarian access. Aid groups reported widespread hunger, disease, and civilian suffering among its estimated 250,000 residents.
More than a military victory
Al-Taweel said the RSF’s victory is not just tactical but transformative, warning of far-reaching consequences for Sudan’s political and territorial future.
“It’s not impossible for the army to regain control,” she explained to Al Manassa. “But that depends on a complex web of domestic, regional, and Western factors, including whether the army can reestablish key supply routes.”
El-Fasher’s proximity to Sudan’s borders with Libya and Chad makes it a vital logistical corridor for weapons, fighters, and smuggling routes. Al-Taweel noted the RSF could now push toward Al-Ubbayid, a key agricultural and transport hub.
A threat to Egypt’s western frontier
From Cairo’s perspective, El-Fasher’s fall introduces new cross-border dangers. Al-Taweel warned that the city could become a gateway for weapons and militants into Egypt’s western desert.
She added that RSF expansion in western and southwestern Sudan has intensified Egypt’s anxiety over regional rivalries. “The fragile security architecture along Egypt’s southern frontier is under direct threat,” she said.
Ambassador Ali El-Hefny, former deputy foreign minister for African affairs, echoed those concerns. “Any surge in violence in Sudan inevitably affects Egypt’s national security,” he told Al Manassa. “This is a serious source of concern for the Egyptian state.”
El-Hefny said Egypt remains committed to preserving state institutions in Sudan and Libya, reiterating its long-standing policy.
Egypt officially opposes any division of Sudan and calls for an immediate ceasefire. “All parties must agree on a political framework for safe and stable coexistence,” he said.
“There must be urgent action to end the conflict and deliver aid to those impacted,” he added, condemning both sides for failing to respond to Sudan’s spiraling humanitarian disaster.
On Tuesday, Jacqueline Wilma Parlevliet, head of the UNHCR sub-office in Port Sudan, reported mass panic as RSF fighters entered El-Fasher. Those fleeing faced armed checkpoints, as well as “extortion, arbitrary arrests, detention, looting, harassment, and gross human rights violations as they tried to reach safety,” she told reporters during a press conference in Geneva.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres also expressed concern over the situation. In a Monday statement, he condemned violations of international humanitarian law, including indiscriminate shelling, attacks on civilians, infrastructure destruction, sexual violence, ethnically motivated killings, and the torture of detainees.
Local resistance groups have issued similar warnings. The El-Fasher Resistance Coordination accused RSF forces of executing wounded civilians and patients inside the city’s Saudi Hospital—the last partially functioning medical facility.
In response, the official spokesperson for the pro-RSF Sudan Founding Alliance (TASIS) denied reports of massacres on X, claiming videos of violations were “fabricated by the media of the Islamic movement, mercenaries from the joint forces, and others.”
He added that the group would “continue on our path we have chosen to liberate Sudan from this terrorism,” referring to the Sudanese army.
Cairo recalibrates its stance
Al-Taweel suggested that Egypt’s formerly cautious approach may soon shift.
“Cairo is walking a tightrope,” she expressed to Al Manassa. “It wants to act as a regional mediator while avoiding military entanglement—but protecting its borders is now a pressing priority.”
On Wednesday, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty met with Sudanese Foreign Minister Mohieddin Salem to assess the crisis. Egypt's foreign ministry spokesperson Tamim Khalaf said Abdelatty reaffirmed Egypt’s “full support for the Sudanese people” and stressed the need to “restore peace and stability.”
The ministry added that Egypt is actively working to broker a ceasefire and secure humanitarian corridors. Abdelatty emphasized Egypt’s commitment to Sudan’s “unity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity,” calling the country's stability “central to regional security.”
