Israel eyes 'alternative homeland' for Palestinians; Egypt says no

As Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza nears the end of its second year, there remains no sign of an imminent ceasefire. Military operations are intensifying both north and south, while more than two million Palestinians endure siege, bombardment, and repeated displacement. Against this backdrop, Israel is advancing a revived and controversial plan to forcibly relocate Gaza’s population to third countries.

This prospect has drawn increasing concern amid a flurry of public statements by Israeli officials. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly promised National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir that thousands of Palestinians would be expelled from Gaza “within weeks.” Ben Gvir subsequently announced plans to construct a beachfront housing project for police personnel in the enclave.

These moves come with firm backing from the US, particularly  President Donald Trump, who has publicly endorsed the idea of evacuating Gaza as part of larger postwar redevelopment schemes. His remarks have offered Israel political cover and potential economic support.

Egypt’s red line

Egypt has responded with a marked escalation in diplomatic activity, seeking to thwart what it views as an existential threat not only to its national security, but also to regional stability and to the Palestinian cause.

“Egypt will not accept, participate in, or allow the displacement of Gaza’s population,” the Foreign Ministry has repeatedly declared, so has the Egyptian president. The message has grown more urgent as Israeli forces escalate operations in Gaza City—home to over a million residents—and push the population towards the southern border with Egypt.

But Cairo’s concern extends beyond military developments. For months, Israel has reportedly held quiet, US-backed talks with Arab and African nations to explore the possibility of resettling Palestinians from Gaza. Media reports identify South Sudan, Somaliland, and Libya as potential hosts, with offers of economic and political incentives in exchange for cooperation.

Egypt has moved quickly to counter these efforts. The Foreign Ministry announced that it had contacted the governments in question and received assurances that no such relocation schemes would be accepted. Nonetheless, confidential Israeli consultations continue, reportedly fueled by hopes of finding receptive partners.

Closing all doors

According to former Assistant Foreign Minister Masoum Marzouk, Egypt’s outreach is designed to shut down Israel’s maneuvering space. “Convincing states to reject Gaza’s displaced is not impossible,” he told Al Manassa, citing the breadth of Egypt’s diplomatic relationships.

Marzouk emphasized that Cairo’s approach relies less on coercion and more on persuasion through offering development aid, trade cooperation, and long-standing ties to steer governments away from such plans. This, he said, is part of a broader effort to reassert Egypt’s diplomatic leadership in a region increasingly shaped by countries who have both wealth and might; the Gulf countries and Israel.

Political scientist Gamal Salama agreed that Cairo’s strategy is shaped by mounting concern over an Israeli-led population transfer. “Egypt wants to cut off every possible route for this scenario,” he said. “Tel Aviv and Washington may be offering financial incentives, but for Egypt, forced displacement is a red line.”

“If this plan goes forward,” he added, “it would mean the end of the Palestinian cause. It would be a second Nakba, like 1948—land confiscated, homes lost, and Palestinians scattered into refugee camps once again.”

Libya’s strategic ambiguity

Libya has emerged as a key target in Israel’s search for relocation options. US media have reported that the Trump administration explored a proposal to transfer up to one million Palestinians to Libya.

Despite repeated denials from Tripoli’s Government of National Unity and the eastern-based Libyan National Army, leaks suggest that confidential talks have taken place. Sources say Ibrahim Dbeibeh, national security adviser to Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibeh, has led discussions about potentially resettling large numbers of Gazans.

Libyan political analyst Khaled Al-Hegazi told Al Manassa that the secrecy surrounding these talks reflects Libya’s historic support for the Palestinian cause and its public rejection of normalization with Israel. He recalled the mass protests of 2023, sparked by a leaked meeting between Foreign Minister Najla Al-Mangoush and her Israeli counterpart, which resulted in her dismissal.

According to Al-Hegazi, Israel, backed by the US, has dangled incentives such as the unfreezing of roughly $30 billion in Libyan assets held abroad—a proposal reportedly endorsed by Washington. Still, the Dbeibeh government fears political fallout, particularly in a country divided between rival authorities in Tripoli and Benghazi.

“The US is trying to balance Israeli demands, Dbeibeh’s need for foreign funds, and broader regional interests,” Al-Hegazi said. But public opposition, he warned, could easily derail any secret agreement.

He also questioned the political feasibility of such a deal. “Dbeibeh lacks full legitimacy to make decisions of this magnitude without broad consensus. Money alone won’t be enough to contain domestic backlash.”

South Sudan

Israel has also approached South Sudan, where political instability has created fertile ground for foreign influence. In August, Reuters reported on Israeli discussions with Juba regarding the establishment of Palestinian refugee camps. The Telegraph later claimed that South Sudan had agreed in exchange for US sanctions relief and Israeli investment in key sectors.

Egypt, aware of these talks, has mounted a counter-effort. According to the AP, Cairo has been pressuring Juba to reject the deal. Israeli outlet Emess Radio reported that while Tel Aviv seeks to relocate Palestinians abroad, Egypt is working to block any such initiative in South Sudan.

Publicly, South Sudan’s Foreign Ministry has denied the reports. But opposition figure Mahmoud Akot, former spokesperson for the National Democratic Movement, told Al Manassa that the government may have quietly accepted the proposal.

“There’s implicit agreement,” Akot said. “But the government knows it can’t easily convince the public or the opposition. Many in South Sudan harbor suspicions towards Arabs and Muslims, and fear cultural encroachment.”

Somaliland: political fragility

Somaliland, the self-declared state seeking international recognition, has also surfaced in reports as a possible relocation site. The idea gained traction after Trump unveiled his so-called “Middle East Riviera” plan, envisioning Gaza as a postwar tourism hub.

Israeli and Western outlets have claimed that Somaliland’s government in Hargeisa offered to host Palestinians in return for diplomatic recognition by Israel. President Abdirahman Irro has denied the reports, stressing his rejection of forced displacement.

Mahmoud Abdi, director of the Hargeisa Center for Studies and Research, told Al Manassa that such a move could spark political chaos. “No government here could survive the demographic shock of absorbing a large refugee population,” he said. “Strong pro-Palestinian sentiment and tribal structures would trigger mass opposition.”

Although rumors of Israeli ties to Somaliland have circulated for years, no formal recognition has been extended. Egyptian-Somaliland relations remain limited, especially given Cairo’s long-standing policy of non-recognition for separatist entities.

“Egypt hasn’t had formal dealings with Somaliland,” Abdi said, noting that a 2023 travel advisory and the closure of Egypt’s cultural center in Hargeisa reflect continued diplomatic distance.

Competing strategies, uncertain outcomes

Israel’s drive to offload Gaza’s population—backed by US political capital and economic inducements—is proceeding quietly but persistently. Egypt, drawing on its regional experience and diplomatic reach, is activating every available channel to stop it.

For Cairo, the stakes are existential. Displacement is not just a strategic threat but a moral and historical one. As secret negotiations unfold across several capitals, Egypt’s message remains unchanged: the forced transfer of Palestinians will not be tolerated, and the region must not be allowed to repeat the mistakes of 1948.