El-Fasher torn between Army and RSF in battle to decide Sudan war

A decisive battle is underway in El-Fasher, a strategic city in Sudan’s Darfur region, where the stakes are high for both the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). A victory for RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, could return the conflict to square one, while a win for SAF head Abdel Fattah al-Burhan would deliver both symbolic and strategic gains. Fighting is intense as a result, further fueled by those who have a vested interest in keeping the conflict alive.

Since early April, the RSF has intensified its attacks on El-Fasher, the capital of North Darfur state, which has been under tight siege for over a year. Meanwhile, the SAF and its allies from the Joint Forces — a coalition of former rebel groups — are scrambling to defend what remains their last stronghold in the west of the country.

Daily shelling and attacks continue unabated. One of the deadliest recent assaults left at least 41 civilians dead, including women and children, according to a statement from the 6th Infantry Division, which is based in El-Fasher. The army claims it and its allies also killed around 600 RSF fighters during the same offensive, including a local commander, during an attempted assault on the city.

The RSF have degraded the army's defenses inside the city, which has been effectively cut off from the outside world since RSF tightened its blockade in April 2024. Although civilians are occasionally permitted to leave, the city remains under relentless bombardment, with more than 200 documented attacks in the past two years, according to military estimates.

The RSF is also waging psychological warfare. Its fighters have called on army troops and Joint Forces members to evacuate the city, promising to open safe corridors for civilians and military personnel alike.

A counteroffensive with political consequences

If the RSF seizes control of El-Fasher, it could reestablish itself at the center of Sudan’s power struggle. Taking the city would pave the way for a rival government headquartered in western Sudan, far from the central and northern states where the army has made gains, most significantly the retaking of the capital Khartoum in late March, ejecting the RSF for the first time since war broke out in April 2023.

The RSF recently advanced by capturing Zamzam refugee camp, just 15 kilometers from El-Fasher. The camp’s location gives whoever controls it strategic access to the city’s supply routes, increasing its military value.

Zamzam camp spans approximately 24 square kilometers and hosts more than 20 schools, a large market, and multiple medical centers. The main road connecting El-Fasher to Nyala, capital of South Darfur and home to an international airport, passes through the camp, raising the likelihood that the RSF could now receive foreign military aid through this corridor.

Sudanese journalist Muammar Ibrahim, who is based in El-Fasher, said the RSF has forced thousands of civilians from neighboring villages to flee over the past few weeks. He estimated the number of people trapped in El-Fasher and Zamzam to be around 1.65 million.

He told Al Manassa that many of the displaced came from the rural outskirts of El-Fasher and the Golo reservoir, the city’s main water supply, now controlled by the RSF. The fertile region around Shagra has been looted entirely, raising fears of an impending food crisis.

“The RSF’s control over Zamzam camp has made it easier for them to access supplies and weapons,” Ibrahim said. “It’s also crippled trade in El-Fasher, which relied heavily on the camp’s central market, now looted by RSF fighters.”

Who controls Darfur?

Darfur’s vast size and strategic location give it geopolitical significance. The region spans roughly 493,000 square kilometers, more than a quarter of Sudan’s total land area, and is home to 17% of the country’s 48 million people. It borders four countries: Libya, Chad, Central African Republic, and South Sudan.

The battle for El-Fasher has proven more difficult than the swift fall of Zamzam, which collapsed in just three days.

Despite the siege and fierce attacks on all fronts, the RSF has failed to capture El-Fasher. Ibrahim credits the resistance to the Sudanese army and Joint Forces’ artillery and drone power, as well as the army’s high concentration of troops within the city. He added that the RSF had lost many of its field commanders in clashes on the city's outskirts.

Millions trapped under fire

The army sees El-Fasher as nonnegotiable. Since the early days of the conflict, the city has witnessed some of the most brutal battles.

Sudanese military expert Amin Ismail Majzoub played down the strategic importance of the RSF’s capture of Zamzam, arguing that the move was aimed more at terrorizing civilians and demonstrating the RSF’s enduring strength on the ground.

In an interview with Al Manassa, Mohamed Mohamedo, media adviser to the chief of the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA), called on the international community to act urgently. He warned that nearly one million displaced families were at risk, surrounded by ongoing violence, and suffering from severe shortages of food and water. Despite the worsening humanitarian crisis, the Sudanese army and Joint Forces remain committed to defending the city, he added.

That commitment, however, may soon be tested. According to Al-Sadiq Ali Hassan, chair of prominent civil society group the Darfur Lawyers Association, the RSF is “on the verge of seizing full control of El-Fasher,” having already taken most neighborhoods and public facilities in the city.

Military momentum in El-Fasher has recently swung toward the RSF, which has acquired advanced weaponry and launched intensified attacks.

Hassan told Al Manassa that RSF fighters have had a presence in El-Fasher since the formation of the Joint Forces under the 2020 Juba Peace Agreement, and controlled much of the city until war broke out. When the conflict erupted, the Joint Forces splintered between factions aligned with the army and those loyal to the RSF. The pro-RSF groups were expelled from the city in the early months of the war.

He explained that downtown El-Fasher remains under the control of the army’s 6th Infantry Division and its allies, including the SLA faction led by Mini Arko Minawiy, who also serves as Darfur’s regional governor, and the Justice and Equality Movement headed by Gibril Ibrahim.

Meanwhile, the RSF and its allied militias, particularly the SLA-Transitional Council led by al-Hadi Idris Yahya and the Gathering of Sudan Liberation Forces headed by al-Tahir Hajar, are entrenched on the outskirts of the city.

According to Hassan, the military balance initially favored the Sudanese army and its allies. But the RSF’s recent acquisition of modern weaponry has shifted the dynamics, giving it a tactical edge.

If the RSF succeeds in capturing El-Fasher, Hassan warned, it would reset the conflict. “It would reopen the floodgates of intercommunal violence in Darfur, and perhaps reignite fighting in the capital and central and northern Sudan, and push the country further into fragmentation,” he said.

*This article was first published in Arabic on 8 May, 2025