The Atlantic: Egypt’s spy chief made secret pre-Oct. 7 Israel trip

Former head of the Egyptian General Intelligence Service Abbas Kamel made a secret visit to Israel on Sept. 26, 2023, 11 days before the October 7 attack, US magazine The Atlantic reported Saturday. During the visit, he warned that Hamas appeared on track to carry out a major attack and called on Israeli officials to grant economic concessions to the Gaza Strip to avert a confrontation.

The Israeli Prime Minister’s office, responding to what it called “the lies” in The Atlantic, denied that Netanyahu had either met or spoken with Kamel, or that such a warning had been conveyed to the prime minister. There has been no official response from Egypt to date.

The magazine based its report on Israeli, Egyptian, Arab, US, and European officials, who it said were briefed on the details of the visit after the October 7 attack, as well as an Israel Airports Authority log and independent flight-tracking data.

According to the report, a chartered Cessna aircraft linked to Egyptian General Intelligence carrying Kamel landed at Ben Gurion Airport about two hours before Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attended an event marking the 50th anniversary of the October War.

The aircraft stopped in an isolated section of the airport used for sensitive diplomatic and security missions.

The aircraft remained in Israel for 67 minutes before returning to Cairo, according to the Airports Authority log reviewed by The Atlantic. The magazine added that independent flight-tracking applications confirmed the flight path.

Warning without an attack date

Kamel informed Israeli officials, according to The Atlantic, that Hamas appeared on track to execute a major attack and that the window to avert disaster was closing, though he did not provide a specific date, target details, or execution methods. The magazine was unable to determine which Israeli officials he met during his brief visit.

Kamel recommended that the Israeli side grant economic concessions to Hamas to prevent a confrontation in Gaza. The Atlantic quoted a former Israeli official, who was later briefed on the visit, summarizing the Egyptian message: if Israel did not change course, Gaza would “blow up in your faces.”

It also cited an Egyptian official as saying that Kamel traveling to Israel himself meant President El-Sisi felt it necessary to deliver the warning directly to the Israeli side. The magazine interpreted this as reflecting thriving intelligence sharing between Egypt and Israel since El-Sisi assumed power, “even when their diplomatic relationship founders.”

The magazine noted that Kamel’s trips to Israel were rare. His last known visits were in May and August 2021 following the war on Gaza that year. Kamel had met Netanyahu in May 2021 as part of Egyptian efforts to solidify a Cairo-mediated ceasefire after 11 days of fighting.

Previously disclosed Egyptian warning

The existence of an Egyptian warning prior to the October 7 attack is not a new revelation in itself, as reports surfaced two days after the assault. However, The Atlantic’s report provides for the first time details of Kamel’s Sept. 26 visit to Israel, the flight that carried him, and the duration of his stay, directly linking the trip to the delivery of the warning.

In October 2023, Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth reported, citing a top-level source in Egyptian intelligence, that Kamel had warned that “something unusual, a terrible operation” could take place around Gaza.

Netanyahu responded that Israel’s focus was on the West Bank. Netanyahu’s office denied the report at the time, stating that the prime minister had not spoken with or met Kamel since forming his government, whether directly or through back channels.

Two days later, then-chairman of the US House Foreign Affairs Committee Michael McCaul told reporters following a closed-door intelligence briefing for members of Congress that Egypt had warned Israel three days before the attack that an event of this nature could happen, adding, “I think the question was at what level.”

Haaretz also published a Sept. 8 investigation into pre-attack intelligence, reporting that a warning from Kamel reached the Israeli prime minister’s office prior to Oct. 7. However, Haaretz framed the alert as a call to Netanyahu’s office, omitting the in-person trip The Atlantic now reports Kamel made on Sept. 26.

Former head of the Israeli National Security Council Tzachi Hanegbi told The Atlantic this week that no visit by Kamel took place and no Egyptian warning was issued, while the offices of Netanyahu and El-Sisi did not respond to the magazine’s requests for comment prior to publication.

Context of the visit

Kamel’s trip took place amid escalating tensions on the Gaza border during the second half of Sept. 2023. In the midst of daily protests near the border fence, Israel closed crossings into the strip on Sept. 20, barring thousands of Palestinian workers from reaching their jobs in Israel and the West Bank.

About 18,000 Palestinians from Gaza held permits to work outside the strip, bringing an estimated $2 million daily into Gaza’s economy.

The tensions coincided with a financial crisis facing the Hamas government in Gaza. Reuters reported in July 2023 that Hamas was unable to pay salaries for roughly 50,000 public-sector workers in the strip, an issue officials attributed in part to delays in Qatari aid used to fund payrolls.

Egypt, Qatar and the United Nations moved during the final days of Sept. to contain the escalation. On Sept. 27, following a visit to Gaza, UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process Tor Wennesland warned of rising tensions, stating that the situation inside the strip was “dire” and that a new conflict would bring “grave consequences for all.”

Two days after Kamel’s visit, Israel reopened the Erez crossing to Palestinian workers on Sept. 28 following a nearly two-week closure, after mediation efforts involving Egypt, Qatar and the United Nations. The understandings also covered discussing an increase in work permits and easing certain restrictions on imports and exports.

The Atlantic notes that mediators believed at the time that offering economic concessions could de-escalate tensions, though it later became clear that Hamas was continuing its preparations for a large-scale attack throughout the negotiation period.

Another warning from Mohamed bin Zayed

The Egyptian warning was not the only one received by Israeli leadership. Haaretz revealed in its investigation that UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed called Netanyahu after learning of information from Egyptian and Palestinian sources. Bin Zayed warned him that Hamas might carry out a major attack and urged him to grant economic concessions to Gaza.

The Israeli newspaper reported that the call lasted about 45 minutes roughly a week and a half before the attack, and that bin Zayed informed Netanyahu that then-Hamas leader in Gaza Yahya Sinwar was planning a major operation that could trigger bloodshed and destabilize the region. Netanyahu’s office later denied the call took place or that the prime minister received a warning from the Emirati president.

According to Haaretz’s account, the information originated from a Palestinian channel involved in indirect talks between Israel and Hamas. In Sept. 2023, a Palestinian mediator close to both sides conveyed a message from Sinwar mentioning readiness for a “huge surprise” and a “terrifying operation,” using the word “earthquake.” The newspaper reported that the warning was passed to the Shin Bet on Sept. 15 and briefed to Netanyahu before a security meeting was convened to discuss it.

The newspaper added that bin Zayed subsequently called Netanyahu himself after concluding that the warning had not received the necessary response. Former Shin Bet officials told Haaretz they were unaware of the direct Emirati warning to Netanyahu.

The Atlantic noted that Jordanian intelligence also conveyed concerns to its Israeli counterpart regarding a potential explosion of the situation, while the CIA issued an internal assessment on Sept. 28 warning of possible escalation by Hamas and multi-day rocket fire targeting Israel, followed by another report on Oct. 5. However, neither report predicted the multiprong nature of the assault that took place two days later. Reports on the two US intelligence assessments surfaced following the attack, noting that neither anticipated the scale of Hamas’s operation.

Warnings continued up to two days before the attack

The Atlantic reported that Egypt continued sending warnings to Israel following Kamel’s visit, up to Oct. 5, two days before the attack, when a new Egyptian message conveyed concerns that the situation was no longer sustainable and that a potential attack could occur, though it provided no information on date, target, or execution plan.

According to the magazine, Egypt also shared its assessments with other regional nations, including Saudi Arabia, though neither Cairo nor Abu Dhabi shared these warnings with the administration of former US President Joe Biden prior to the attack.

On Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas and other Palestinian factions launched a major attack on southern Israel, leaving about 1,200 people dead and 251 captured and taken to Gaza, which was followed by the genocidal war on Gaza.

The Atlantic observed that the multitude of warnings does not mean Egypt, the UAE, or other intelligence agencies knew the details of the attack beforehand, as most alerts received by Israel in 2023 lacked dates, targets, or operational plans. However, it argued that the personal visit by the head of Egyptian intelligence should have heightened vigilance among Israeli leadership.

The disclosures come as debate persists within Israel regarding accountability for the political, military, and intelligence failures preceding the October 7 attack, amid calls to form an independent state commission of inquiry, which Netanyahu continues to reject.