The threat of a second US military strike on Tehran and tightening economic sanctions have intensified pressure on Iranian citizens already struggling with stagnant wages and skyrocketing inflation.
This comes amid a massive US military buildup in the Middle East and unprecedented economic restrictions that have crippled Iran’s oil exports and banking sectors since Washington withdrew from the nuclear deal in May 2018.
Iranians told Al Manassa that the inability to provide for iftar—the meal to break the fast during the holy month of Ramadan, which began Feb. 18—serves as a "warning bell" for a potential uprising by an "army of the hungry" against the ruling regime. One kilogram of meat now costs between 6 and 7 million rials—or colloquially 600,000 to 700,000 toman—(approximately $4.50 to $5.50), while average monthly salaries hover around 15 million toman, or less than $116.
The burden of sanctions grew this month after the US threatened 25% tariffs on any country trading with Iran, primarily affecting China and India. Consequently, the Iranian rial has plummeted 75% over the last year, approaching a rate of 1.3 million rials to the dollar.
Unbearable price hikes
Fouad Atiyeh-Pour, an Iranian citizen, told Al Manassa that domestic conditions have become unbearable. He noted that a single loaf of bread now costs 1,000 tomans, rendering the average 15-million-toman salary insufficient. Many citizens now rely on remittances from relatives abroad, despite the difficulty of transferring funds through sanctioned banks.
Mehdi Oghabi, another Iranian citizen, said empty tables have become “fuel for an army of the hungry,” describing the economy as not just inflation in the traditional sense but a “systematic economic collapse,” with prices changing by the hour, not by the month or year.
"Bread was considered a red line and the last resort for the poor," Oghabi said, noting that prices have jumped even for government-subsidized loaves. He added that a 400-gram box of cheese has become a luxury item after prices rose over 100% compared to last year.
According to Oghabi, a simple iftar for a family of four—consisting of bread, tea, cheese, and dates without meat—costs nearly 1 million toman. This has forced millions of families to eliminate meat, fruit, and dairy from their diets.
Calculations for military confrontation
The economic strain coincides with the largest US military deployment to the region in years, following a 12-day conflict in June 2025 that involved direct US airstrikes on Iranian targets. While Washington and Tehran are currently engaged in de-escalation talks in Oman and Geneva, the US continues to threaten a harsh strike if Iran persists with its nuclear program.
Dr. Mohamed Mohsen Abo El-Nour, president of the Arab Forum for Iranian Policy Analysis, told Al Manassa that Iran's current economic structure makes any military confrontation extremely costly due to eroded purchasing power and class disparity. He noted that while the regime might use a potential US attack to bolster internal cohesion, an open war targeting energy or infrastructure would trigger "unprecedented internal pressure."
Dr. Kholoud Yaqoub, a professor of Iranian studies at Cairo University, told Al Manassa that cost-of-living pressures have been the primary driver of protests since December 2025. She warned that the ongoing economic crisis limits the regime's ability to mobilize the public if the military confrontation expands.
Protests that began in late December 2025 over economic conditions previously turned political, leading to clashes with security forces and the deaths of thousands of people.
