The Ministry of Electricity may incur an additional 25% in subsidies in the final quarter of 2025 after freezing tariffs, an informed ministry source told Al Manassa on Thursday.
The source, who requested anonymity, estimated the ministry’s extra subsidy burden this quarter at about 40 billion pounds (around $800 million), assuming the current tiered price structure remains in place, amid higher fuel use at generation plants. That compares with 32 billion pounds ($640 million) in the same period last year.
“There is no intention to move electricity prices until the end of 2025,” Electricity Minister Mahmoud Esmat said on Wednesday on the sidelines of the 21st General Conference of the Association Power Utilities of Africa/APUA.
The source said the state budget for the current fiscal year allocates only 75 billion pounds ($1.5 billion) for energy subsidies covering both electricity and fuels, yet electricity support alone reached 45 billion pounds in the first fiscal quarter (July to Sept. 2025). The government will shoulder anything over the budgeted amount, the source added.
Power stations are currently consuming around 3.4 billion cubic feet (bcf/d) of natural gas per day, in addition to volumes of fuel oil when needed. These are significantly higher levels than recent years, when consumption ranged between 2.8 and 3.1 bcf/d.
The government chose to keep electricity prices fixed for now despite proposals to adjust them and amid expectations of higher fuel prices, the source said. “Electricity and fuel will not be raised at the same time,” he added. “A rise in gasoline prices is more likely, especially with electricity prices fixed until the end of the year.”
This moderating application of Egypt's commitments to the IMF to overhaul the country's subsidy system, as part of its loan agreement, has stirred up worry within the IMF ahead of upcoming reviews of Egypt's performance.
In December, a government committee will begin reviewing the new pricing determinants, including the production cost of a kilowatt-hour, the gas price, and the exchange rate, to set the electricity tariff structure starting in 2026, the source said.
Current tariffs follow a progressive structure, with higher consumption attracting a higher rate for domestic and commercial users. Industrial users pay a fixed rate.
